Why making confident product decisions matters more than ever

The Cost of Bad Decisions

Bad product decisions can trigger a vicious cycle. One poor choice leads to weak results, which in turn increases pressure on the team and produces an even weaker product.

This Decision Doom Loop traps teams into churning out low-value features under stress, often transforming the team into a “feature factory” instead of a value driver. The more pressure mounts, the more the product suffers, leading to further bad decisions. It’s a downward spiral that many teams struggle to escape.

The business impact of this doom loop is severe. If a typical product team costs around €1M per year, a large portion of that investment can go to waste when 50–70% of product ideas fail. In fact, Leah Tharin notes in her newsletter that you need about €2M in successful outcomes just to break even, and on the order of €3–5M in returns to truly be worthwhile. In other words, a weak stream of product decisions is financially unsustainable. As Tharin bluntly puts it, if your product team isn’t generating roughly 3–5× its cost, it’s effectively operating at a loss. This high cost of bad decisions means organizations simply can’t afford to stay stuck in the doom loop.

Why It’s Harder Than Ever to Make the Right Decisions

Building great products has never been easy, but it’s arguably harder now than ever before. Over the past few decades, product decision-making has evolved dramatically.

In the 1990s, decisions were largely business-driven, dictated by top-down business goals. By the 2000s, teams became more user-centric, prioritizing user research and UX. The 2010s brought a data-driven era, where A/B tests and analytics guided choices. And today, in the 2020s, product teams are expected to be impact-focused, tying every feature to outcomes and ROI. Each layer—business needs, user experience, data evidence, and impact accountability—adds complexity. A modern product manager must juggle all these factors, which raises the stakes on every decision.

Our recent JTBD study for Beyond confirms how complex prioritization and decision-making have become. The top challenges reported were quantifying the actual impact of their decisions, providing clear visibility into the “why” behind each decision, and supporting decisions with solid data and evidence. Teams also struggle to gather relevant data without slowing down progress.

In other words, not only do PMs have to make the right call – they have to constantly prove and communicate that it’s the right call. It’s no surprise that experts often say prioritization is the number one challenge in product management today. When you’re balancing impact, transparency, and evidence all at once, making confident decisions can feel like walking a tightrope.

How to Build Confidence in Product Decisions

The good news is that the same loop dynamics can work in your favor. By deliberately improving how you choose what to build, you can create a Confident Decision Loop – a virtuous cycle that is the opposite of the doom loop. When a team makes the right decisions, it sees great results, which boosts confidence and morale.

That increased confidence means less panic and pressure, leading to a stronger product and better subsequent decisions. Each success effectively reinforces the next success.

So how can product teams foster this positive momentum? Here are a few key steps to build confidence in product decisions:

Set the right conditions for good decisions

Ensure the team has an environment that balances desired impact, continuous learning, and reliable execution (delivering output) before diving into solutions. This might involve clearly defining success metrics, running quick experiments, or aligning on strategy, so that decisions are made with context and focus. Good decisions rarely happen in a vacuum; they stem from the right prep work and mindset.

Trust your instincts but verify with data

Great product leaders develop strong intuition over time, but they always check the facts. Use real user data and signals to validate assumptions. If your gut says an idea will solve a problem, back it up by looking at customer feedback or experiment results. Act when you have meaningful insight, not just a hunch. This blend of gut feeling and evidence ensures you’re not flying blind.

Communicate decisions clearly

Confidence grows when everyone understands the rationale behind a choice. Be transparent about what you don’t know yet and any assumptions you’re making. Explain your decisions in clear, simple terms so stakeholders and team members grasp the “why.” By openly admitting uncertainties and sharing the reasoning, you build trust. Even if a decision is bold or risky, people are more likely to rally behind it when they see the logic and honesty behind your thinking.

By closing the feedback loops and following these practices, product teams can escape the doom loop and reinforce a culture of confident decision-making. In an age where every feature investment counts, building this confidence isn’t just nice-to-have – it’s become a critical ingredient for product success.

Each smart decision today paves the way for even better decisions tomorrow, creating a resilient product that can thrive under any market pressure.