Lindy Effect
Timeless product principles often outlast the latest trends and buzzwords.
Alexander Hipp
Founder, Beyond
Most product managers (myself included) are constantly tempted by the newest trends and emerging technologies. The Lindy Effect reminds us that longevity itself is often the best predictor of future success.
This mental model prompts us to consider:
- What enduring principles underlie successful products?
- Are we building for temporary hype or lasting value?
The Theory
The Lindy Effect posits that the longevity of an idea, technology, or principle predicts its future endurance. Popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, it suggests that things that have stood the test of time are more likely to continue lasting.
For example, classic technologies like bicycles or foundational principles like simplicity have demonstrated remarkable staying power, often surpassing the latest tech fads.
Product Management Applications
Embracing the Lindy Effect helps product managers build lasting value:
- Identify Timeless Principles: Prioritize enduring customer needs like convenience, reliability, simplicity, and human connection.
- Strategic Planning: Focus on what won't change—consistent user needs—rather than chasing fleeting trends.
- Resilient Technologies: Adopt technologies that have consistently solved fundamental problems over time.
Jeff Bezos famously employed Lindy thinking by building Amazon around customer desires that remain stable over decades, such as low prices, fast delivery, and wide selection. This strategic anchor has fueled Amazon’s sustained growth and dominance.
My Personal Extension: Fostering Long-Term Product Vision
The Lindy Effect isn't just about product strategy—it transforms organizational culture by encouraging long-term thinking and resilience.
Great product leaders leverage the Lindy Effect by:
- Regularly challenging teams with the question, “What won't change for our customers in the next decade?”
- Ensuring strategic bets align with enduring principles, reducing reactionary pivots to short-lived trends.
Adopting this mindset fosters a culture focused on stable foundations and continuous improvement, rather than constant pivots. Companies like Apple exemplify this by continuously emphasizing simplicity and intuitive design, principles which have reliably guided their success through decades of technological evolution.